Katrina :: Storm Effects
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Effects of the Storm :: Hurricane Katrina :: Predictions
In spite of repeated warnings, no large-scale corrective measures had been implemented when Hurricane Katrina made landfall.
"The design of the original levees, which dates to the 1960s, was based on rudimentary storm modeling that, it is now realized, might underestimate the threat of a potential hurricane.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_Hurricane_Katrina_on_New_Orleans
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Predictions
In spite of repeated warnings, no large-scale corrective measures had been implemented when Hurricane Katrina made landfall.
"The design of the original levees, which dates to the 1960s, was based on rudimentary storm modeling that, it is now realized, might underestimate the threat of a potential hurricane. Even if the modeling was adequate, however, the levees were designed to withstand only forces associated with a fast-moving hurricane that, according to the National Weather Service’s Saffir-Simpson scale, would be placed in category 3. If a lingering category 3 storm — or a stronger storm, say, category 4 or 5 — were to hit the city, much of New Orleans could find itself under more than 20 ft (6 m) of water."
J.J. Westerink, The Creeping Storm, Civil Engineering Magazine, June 2003.
The eye of Hurricane Katrina was forecast to pass to the east of New Orleans. In that event, the wind would back into the north as the storm passed, forcing large volumes of water from Lake Pontchartrain against the levees and possibly into the City. It was also forecast that the storm surge in Lake Pontchartrain would reach 14 to 18 feet (4 to 5 m), with waves reaching seven feet (2 m) above the storm surge [5].
On August 28, at 10 a.m. CDT, the National Weather Service (NWS) field office in New Orleans issued a bulletin predicting catastrophic damage to New Orleans. Anticipated effects included, at the very least, the partial destruction of half of the well-constructed houses in the city, severe damage to most industrial buildings rendering them inoperable, the "total destruction" of all wood-framed low-rise apartment buildings, all windows blowing out in high-rise office buildings, and the creation of a huge debris field of trees, telephone poles, cars, and collapsed buildings. Lack of clean water was predicted to "make human suffering incredible by modern standards".
Further predictions were that the standing water caused by huge storm surges would render most of New Orleans uninhabitable for weeks and that the destruction of oil and petrochemical refineries in the surrounding area would spill waste into the flooding. The resulting mess would coat every surface, converting the city into a toxic marsh until water could be drained. Some experts said that it could take six months or longer to pump all the water out of the city. Even after the area had been drained, and afterward all buildings would need to undergo inspection to determine structural soundness, as all buildings in the city would likely be at least partly submerged [6]. In a cruel twist of fate, many of the predictions from a FEMA simulated hurricane response exercise held in 2004. National Geographic published FEMA's predictions for the city and the country following such a disaster in October 2004 [7][8] (see Hurricane Pam, [9]) correctly predicted many of the calamities that actually occurred with Katrina [10].)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_Hurricane_Katrina_on_New_Orleans
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