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August 28, 2005
Forecasters feared Sunday afternoon that storm driven waters will lap over the New Orleans levees when monster Hurricane Katrina pushes past the Crescent City tomorrow. By late afternoon Sunday, rain bands and gusty winds were flowing across coastal Louisiana near the mouth of the Mississippi River, almost due south of New Orleans and conditions were expected to continue to deteriorate as the powerful storm neared land.
“Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide levels, locally as high as 28 feet, along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall,” according to National Hurricane Center forecaster Richard Pasch.
“Some levees in the Greater New Orleans area could be overtopped,” he said.
The fear of catastrophic storm-driven flooding sent hundreds of thousands of residents fleeing the city Saturday, jamming highways in every direction as they sought a sturdy roof on higher ground.
Thousands more who could not flee ringed the New Orleans Superdome in hopes of finding shelter from a storm being called “historic” even before it comes ashore and compared to 1969’s hugely destructive Hurricane Camille.
Forecasters said Sunday that the city’s fate could be decided by whether the storm passes east or west of the metropolitan area. If it’s track is west of the city, that will put New Orleans in the wettest and windiest part of a storm that is already being called a historic storm that will rival 1969’s Category five monster Camille in devastation.
Acadiana will be spared the worst effects of the storm, according to AccuWeather forecaster Henry Margusity.
“The bulk of the storm will be from Baton Rouge east,” he said Sunday afternoon. “Lafayette will be on the western fringe and will not get any of its severe effects.”
He said the city could expect 40 to 45 mph winds beginning overnight tonight, some heavy rainstorms, and an end to most of the storm’s effects at least by mid-afternoon.
Coastal Acadiana may feel greater impacts. According to a statement from the Lake Charles office of the National Weather Service, tides are currently running less than a foot above normal along the Acadiana coast, but a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above normal is possible near the mouth of the Atchafalaya River.
Across the lower Atchafalaya Basin, northeast winds have already increased to 10 to 20 mph and will increase to near 40 mph before sunrise on Monday.
“A few gusts to hurricane force will be possible in the Morgan City, Stephensville, Amelia area Monday morning,” according to the Lake Charles advisory.
On coastal waters near Vermilion and Atchafalaya bays, northeast winds were running 15 to 20 knots this afternoon and were expected to increase to a sustained 35 knots this evening.
“Elsewhere across southwest Louisiana, winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 by Monday afternoon. Wind speeds across the entire region will be decreasing by Monday evening,” the Lake Charles bureau advised.
Walter Maestri, Jefferson Parish emergency management director, said Katrina appears to be following the same track as Hurricane Betsy did in 1965, when she caused severe flooding in New Orleans. A computer model run by the LSU Hurricane Center on Saturday indicated that Katrina could do worse.
The model showed a storm surge of as much as 16 feet moving up the Mississippi River and topping levees in Chalmette and New Orleans. High water flowing from Lake Pontchartrain through St. Charles Parish would also flood over levees into Kenner.
Much of the north shore of the lake would also be flooded, including Slidell, Madisonville, Mandeville, and Lacombe, according to the model.
A hurricane warning remains in effect from Morgan City to the Alabama-Florida line. A hurricane watch has been posted from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Intracoastal City west to Cameron.
A hurricane warning means that winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 24 hours. A watch means they are possible. Tropical storm winds range from 39 to 73 mph.
National Hurricane Center forecasters extended the tropical storm warning overnight because Katrina continues to grow in size as well as intensity and the storm experts are uncertain just how far east and west the storm’s effects will be felt when it finally comes ashore.
AccuWeather analysts think the worst risk as of early Sunday is over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and extreme southwest Alabama. If the storm makes landfall as expected, they expect wind gusts to 45 mph or slightly higher in central Acadiana.
At 4 p.m. Katrina was near 26.9 north and 89.0 west, or about 150 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Maximum sustained winds are 165 mph with gusts to 180 mph, making Katrina a Category 5 storm. Tropical force winds extend outward to 230 miles from the storm center; hurricane winds have a radius of about 105 miles.
Category 5 is the highest designation for hurricanes.
http://www.acadiananow.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050828/NEWS05/50828026
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